It seems if you are a "member" of the online horse racing community and it happens to be March or April, this odd need to turn organize, analyze and rank rears its ugly head. Maybe it's the intense desire to prove that, at one point in the spring, you had the Derby winner on your radar even if you end up betting the ranch on the 2-1 shot that gets lost down the Churchill stretch in the big dance. Either way, I have been struck with this need to rank and analyze what I feel are my top 10 Derby horses.
1.) Uncle Mo- Duh, right? Well, let me tell you, I actually have him shakily up here for a few reasons. Mostly, I can't stop arguing with myself about how I really feel about him. On the pro side, he has kicked the ass of anyone he meets. He's an absolute stunner to look at (if only picking winners was that easy right?). He's professional and has shown no mental gaps. He has tactical speed. The cons though? Here's where it gets sticky. His connections. I know, I know. Pletcher has won every race short of the Tour de France and took the Derby last year, but I still have hesitations. Uncle Mo is definitely the best colt he has ever brought up to this race, but can we actually be confident enough in Pletcher to trust the public workout this weekend and the Wood Memorial to be enough to prep a colt for the biggest test of his young career? Likewise, what proof do we have that Pletcher can prime a horse for the entire Triple Crown, because I guarantee you, if he wins the Derby, that won't be enough. Also on the con side, we have that pesky pedigree issue. Now, I'm willing to dismiss this seeing as I have witnessed many miler pedigrees able to get the mile and a quarter and beyond. Plus, he has yet to show any slowing due to distance. So the short story on all this rambling? He's #1 for now, but I don't think I can bet him come Derby day, so my eyes are peeled for "the one" who will knock him off the top of my list.
2.) Soldat: From now on, he will be referred to, by me, as "Sol DAT bitches!" I adore this colt and I adore his connections for being so brave in diversifying his schedule. He can do basically anything on any surface. He showed an awful lot of talent in the Fountain of Youth and he can easily come up to the Derby as a solid second choice. My concerns lie in his ability to relax and, once again, his pedigree is slightly shaky, but he's a beautiful colt with a great stride who I look forward to watching race again.
3.) Premier Pegasus: I feel obliged to put him here, because he did win the race in impressive fashion. Unfortunately, it's easy to find a hole in that argument when you see the fractions he was closing against. The race basically fell in his lap, but it could have just as easily fallen into the lap of Jaycito or a variety of other closers. He's got a great pedigree for the Derby, but his connections leave a lot of question marks. My biases that have existed since I fell in love with his daddy in 2000 might also have something to do with my willingness to throw him up so high.
4.) Mucho Macho Man: This colt will most likely end up kicking ass in Louisiana and still come into the Derby with question marks as The Fair Grounds has been a less than desirable place to put together a campaign. He is consistent, however, and though he may not be the flashiest runner, he must be respected.
5.) Jaycito: I'm willing to give him a lot of leeway for the San Felipe. No one was beating Premier Pegasus and the best he could do is run his race and look forward to the next race. He stands to improve a lot off of that race and I fully expect him to. He stands as one of Baffert's best bets and, come Triple Crown season, I have to give Baffert a lot of respect.
6.) Dialed In: His last performance didn't disappoint me that much. It's more the running style that disappoints me. Dead closers rarely perform consistently, so getting really excited about them seems like setting myself up for disappointment. I'll put him here because he didn't completely flop in the allowance, but I'm chilly on him.
7.) Stay Thirsty: Ahhh the other horse. Real Quiet. Charismatic. Ya know. The other horses. I don't think this one will end up in that list, but Lord knows he has the pedigree to do anything. He's another lightly raced Pletcher trainee, so I guess those are basically a dime a dozen these days, but he could make some noise wherever his stablemate isn't.
8.) Archarcharch: Doesn't he just have that sexy worker horse pedigree? By Arch out of a Woodman mare. Rawr. Solid. I like him. Obviously there are a lot of question marks, but those should be answered this weekend in the Rebel.
9.) Rogue Romance: His injury is a bit disappointing in that the slightest things can sidetrack a campaign, but I feel his performance in the Risen Star was a lot better than it was given credit for. I do fear that they have been throwing darts with him and are hoping the Derby trail sticks. If he doesn't make the Derby, he's one of my picks for a sleeper in the Colonial Turf Series.
10.) To Honor And Serve: Here's a fun one for you. If he can come back with a win in the Florida Derby, expect to see him at the top or near the top of my list. My hope is that he is simply being primed for the right time, so being concerned is premature, but I am too shaky to place him super high.
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