As it is Preakness week, I've been trying to keep up with the works of the Kentucky Derby winner and also rans as well as the new shooters coming in and taking a chance at the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown. However, this year, a new breed of horse seems to be overshadowing all of these.
Kegasus. His name seems to strike fear in the hearts of the "traditions of the turf" sector of the horse racing media. He also seems to be striking excitement in the hearts of local 20 somethings planning on attending the Preakness infield party.
Ever since Kegasus has been introduced earlier this spring, I have struggled with what exactly my stance is on the beer gutted steed. My first reaction is an instinctual one as a young person in racing: rebellion.
Horse racing has a nasty habit of shutting down ideas before they even think about what the benefits of them may be. For example, last year's Preakness. The Maryland Jockey Club debuted the phrase "Get Your Preak On". I, personally, thought it was genius. Very catchy, simply a mantra, borderline racy (no pun intended), but far from raunchy. Immediately, it was attacked by the sector of horse racing that expects the pageantry and history of the sport to carry it to prominence once again. This is a really...cute...perspective, but far from realistic. Horse racing is not different from anything else. It all comes down to money and how to best make it.
Marketing is for, sadly, my generation. To be honest, I am sickened by my generation. They are a group of people with a diminishing attention span that finds binge drinking a necessity, drunken destruction a regular activity and boundaries non-existent. I have seen this sector eliminate awesome festivals and events through their lack of respect for....anything.
But there is something that must be noted about this generation: They spend a crapload of money just to drink. Any event organizer must be aware of this fact and acknowledge in the process of any marketing plan. As obnoxious as these people are, they are a great way to make easy money. Hell, the beer doesn't even have to be good, it just has to be alcoholic.
So when the Maryland Jockey Club trots out Kegasus, I don't see this as a knock against horse racing or stooping to a lower level, I simply see it as a damn easy way to make money off of a bunch of idiots. If the infield party is going to happen at Pimlico anyways, why not try to market it and make that much more money? Kegasus visits a local bar a few times leading up to the Preakness and more people end up in the infield. Each of these people spends more money and before you know it, Kegasus has paid for himself.
But I guess racing will continue to believe they are above making easy money. They will continue to cling to pageantry all the way to the grave. Call me crazy, but I find Kegasus a hell of a lot less offensive than snarky owners, trainers fighting every single drug ruling there is, jockeys needing breathalyzers, backside dorms falling apart left and right, and lame $5,000 claimers going for their 3rd win in 90 starts. Horse racing may be about pageantry and charm a few times a year, but let's not fool ourselves. We're not above much, so why pick on an idea that might actually benefit the sport?
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Thursday, May 5, 2011
I Know You Can't Handicap The Derby.....But Here's My Shot At It
I have tried to make an attempt at separating the contenders into my top horses I like to win, the ones I like to finish top 3, and my throw outs. Enjoy.
To Win (In no particular order):
Archarcharch: He's consistent, has a great classic pedigree (what did I say about that??? Sigh....) and the race should set up nicely for him. The post is a concern, but I refuse to let that affect my picks.
Mucho Macho Man: He's the one I'm willing to excuse for his last race. The lost shoe may have really contributed to his loss.
Dialed In: He hasn't done anything wrong. In other years, I would dismiss him for being slow, but they are all as slow. The race should set up very well for him, but I am afraid of the trip he may have to overcome as a dead closer.
To Win or To Place? (I can't decide whether I like these horses enough to declare them potential winners):
Shackleford: I have said all week that if you like Dialed In at all, you have to like Shackleford. He ran a much tougher race in Florida and was tough as nails. His pedigree and running style will work against him, but I think there is more to him than a lot of the other sprinter speed types.
Soldat: I've been high on this horse all spring and I hate to give up now. Obviously, he suffers from the same problem as Shackleford in that he is speed that will have to hang tough to be part of the scene at the wire, but I think he's a classy, tough colt who can do it.
Top 3 Type Horses:
Nehro: It's hard to ignore his closing runs in his last two, but I have trouble betting a horse who is 1 for 5 lifetime.
Midnight Interlude: What in the world to do with this horse.... I consider him the wild card. He's obviously still developing, but he's a big burly colt. I feel like he will flop and be overwhelmed by everything Derby, but he could be a very talented horse. Impossible for me to ignore.
Santiva: He had an odd spring with a bit of a break coming into the Risen Star, making you think he wasn't quite primed for it. But then he ran in the Blue Grass? Totally a throw out performance. He has a win over Churchill, which is definitely a plus. I struggle to like him to win due to the odd gaps between races and only two starts this year, but I can see him getting some of it.
Animal Kingdom: I got talked onto this horse. Dead serious. I still want to place him in my "synthetic/turf horse" file, but his work was beautiful last weekend. Begrudgingly adding him here....
Throw out horses (In order of preference):
Derby Kitten: I almost want to put this horse in my "could place" list, but I have no clue why. He should be in the same category of Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, but for some unknown reason, I'm willing to give him a bit more credit. Call it a hunch.
Master of Hounds: Could he run well? I suppose. He's shown he has talent and I think his pedigree could maybe indicate some dirt affinity. But there's just too much to indicate otherwise.
Twice The Appeal: Don't throw out Borel right? Well, if this colt wins, there will be about as many crickets as there were after Mine That Bird won. Not willing to give Sunland horses credit off of just one success over the past 100 years.
Uncle Mo: Where do I start? I hated his Wood Memorial. It wasn't so much his run, it was the complete lack of heart he showed. That was a horse that didn't care a lick that he was getting passed. Combine that with all the crap in the past few weeks with GI tract infections, quarters being grabbed, workouts being lackluster, Repole being defensive, Repole seeming defeated, the panel of vets, the climbing action in gallops, the missed meals. Need I go on? Don't even think he will run.
Pants On Fire: .....I still don't know what happened in the LA Derby. It was his first flash of brilliance. Looking back, I still wouldn't bet him in that race, so why would I now?
Stay Thirsty: Too inconsistent and I am concerned his post will actually be the worst one due to all the speed on the outside of him vying for a rail position. Could see him getting pinched.
Decisive Moment: Last won at Delta Downs. I think that's a good indication of class.
Comma To The Top: This horse bugs me. I loved that his connections ruled out the Derby prior to the SA Derby. And then they do what everyone does. He was gassed going 9F. Can't see him being anywhere near the top at the end.
Brilliant Speed: I don't like Keeneland horses coming into the Derby and I just don't think he's a dirt horse.
Twinspired: The Derby gods want him to win, right? Nah. Like Brilliant Speed, he has been put on synthetics or turf his entire career. There's usually a reason for that.
Watch Me Go: I just don't think he has the class for this one.
So there it is, the field, one by one. Judging by my recent lack of scores, you may want to just flip flop this list.
To Win (In no particular order):
Archarcharch: He's consistent, has a great classic pedigree (what did I say about that??? Sigh....) and the race should set up nicely for him. The post is a concern, but I refuse to let that affect my picks.
Mucho Macho Man: He's the one I'm willing to excuse for his last race. The lost shoe may have really contributed to his loss.
Dialed In: He hasn't done anything wrong. In other years, I would dismiss him for being slow, but they are all as slow. The race should set up very well for him, but I am afraid of the trip he may have to overcome as a dead closer.
To Win or To Place? (I can't decide whether I like these horses enough to declare them potential winners):
Shackleford: I have said all week that if you like Dialed In at all, you have to like Shackleford. He ran a much tougher race in Florida and was tough as nails. His pedigree and running style will work against him, but I think there is more to him than a lot of the other sprinter speed types.
Soldat: I've been high on this horse all spring and I hate to give up now. Obviously, he suffers from the same problem as Shackleford in that he is speed that will have to hang tough to be part of the scene at the wire, but I think he's a classy, tough colt who can do it.
Top 3 Type Horses:
Nehro: It's hard to ignore his closing runs in his last two, but I have trouble betting a horse who is 1 for 5 lifetime.
Midnight Interlude: What in the world to do with this horse.... I consider him the wild card. He's obviously still developing, but he's a big burly colt. I feel like he will flop and be overwhelmed by everything Derby, but he could be a very talented horse. Impossible for me to ignore.
Santiva: He had an odd spring with a bit of a break coming into the Risen Star, making you think he wasn't quite primed for it. But then he ran in the Blue Grass? Totally a throw out performance. He has a win over Churchill, which is definitely a plus. I struggle to like him to win due to the odd gaps between races and only two starts this year, but I can see him getting some of it.
Animal Kingdom: I got talked onto this horse. Dead serious. I still want to place him in my "synthetic/turf horse" file, but his work was beautiful last weekend. Begrudgingly adding him here....
Throw out horses (In order of preference):
Derby Kitten: I almost want to put this horse in my "could place" list, but I have no clue why. He should be in the same category of Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, but for some unknown reason, I'm willing to give him a bit more credit. Call it a hunch.
Master of Hounds: Could he run well? I suppose. He's shown he has talent and I think his pedigree could maybe indicate some dirt affinity. But there's just too much to indicate otherwise.
Twice The Appeal: Don't throw out Borel right? Well, if this colt wins, there will be about as many crickets as there were after Mine That Bird won. Not willing to give Sunland horses credit off of just one success over the past 100 years.
Uncle Mo: Where do I start? I hated his Wood Memorial. It wasn't so much his run, it was the complete lack of heart he showed. That was a horse that didn't care a lick that he was getting passed. Combine that with all the crap in the past few weeks with GI tract infections, quarters being grabbed, workouts being lackluster, Repole being defensive, Repole seeming defeated, the panel of vets, the climbing action in gallops, the missed meals. Need I go on? Don't even think he will run.
Pants On Fire: .....I still don't know what happened in the LA Derby. It was his first flash of brilliance. Looking back, I still wouldn't bet him in that race, so why would I now?
Stay Thirsty: Too inconsistent and I am concerned his post will actually be the worst one due to all the speed on the outside of him vying for a rail position. Could see him getting pinched.
Decisive Moment: Last won at Delta Downs. I think that's a good indication of class.
Comma To The Top: This horse bugs me. I loved that his connections ruled out the Derby prior to the SA Derby. And then they do what everyone does. He was gassed going 9F. Can't see him being anywhere near the top at the end.
Brilliant Speed: I don't like Keeneland horses coming into the Derby and I just don't think he's a dirt horse.
Twinspired: The Derby gods want him to win, right? Nah. Like Brilliant Speed, he has been put on synthetics or turf his entire career. There's usually a reason for that.
Watch Me Go: I just don't think he has the class for this one.
So there it is, the field, one by one. Judging by my recent lack of scores, you may want to just flip flop this list.
Why You Can't Handicap The Derby
It's Thursday of Derby week and everyone in horse racing is trying to do the same thing: handicap the Kentucky Derby. But as I poured over past performances, videos of preps and pedigrees, I realized you cannot handicap the Derby. Why? Because it isn't a real race.
Selecting horses for the Derby is a completely different process than handicapping an everyday, run of the mill stakes race. In those races, reasoning makes sense. Trends make sense. Past performances make sense. Throwing a horse out is easy.
The Derby? Whooo boy. This ain't no run of the mill anything.
It starts out by staring at the daunting list of 20 names. They all start to blur together as different thoughts fly through your head. The past three months have been spent watching, preparing and deciphering between these contenders and all of a sudden, they all seem the same.
So, after 10 minutes of allowing your head to rule, you realize you need to eliminate some horses. Starting at the top, you start to strike out the colts who are sons of champion sprinters and milers. Wait. Wasn't Boundary a miler? And Mr Prospector? Dammit. Erase strikeout marks. Forget breeding. How often does the son of AP Indy out of the Seattle Slew mare actually win the Derby anyways?
Who do we eliminate now? Take out the ones who don't seem to have the class. This colt broke his maiden at Po Dunk Downs and finished 4th in the Sunland Der..... Mine. That. Bird. You toy with the question that has hung over every handicapper's head since 2009: Can we forget about this Derby yet? The ghost of a hobbling cowboy trainer and a tiny bay colt haunt you and make it impossible to draw a line through the Sunland superstar.
Speed figures. Speed figures were created for races like this. Give a numerical value to a performance. Bada Bing. Too bad all the speed figures are within two points of each other for the previous start.
How about how the race will set up? There seems to be about 7 speed horses lining up to take the lead. So that should favor that dead closer, right? But what about the trip? Horses never get stopped in the Derby....
So there you sit. No horse eliminated, no horse picked. The blur only seems to spread now.
How exactly do you pick that elusive Derby winner? Let alone an exacta or trifecta wager... God save us all if the superfecta seems lucrative.
That's really the beauty of it. It isn't run of the mill in any way. It's a stakes race, technically, but really, it is in a class of its own. It's 20 three year olds, a fact that should automatically spell disaster. All of them are going 10 furlongs for the first time. All of them have been prepped for this race and this race only. It will not serve as a tightener for a future race. This is it. It brings in sprinters with connections who would have never dreamed of entering them in a 9 furlong race, let alone 10. It brings in turf horses with pedigrees that are littered with Danehill, Sadlers Wells. It brings in colts with only two or three starts under their belts.
The conditions are technically a grade one going 1 1/4 mile on the dirt. These conditions would normally be avoided by half of the field.
But it is the Derby after all.
So how do you handicap?
Go off a hunch. Stay on the bandwagon you've been on all spring. Bet the overlay. Pick the traditionally winning connections. Pick your favorite name. Throw a proverbial dart. The good news about handicapping the Derby?
No one will call you an idiot leading up to the race. The images of Giacomo and Mine That Bird are fresh enough to never mock someone for an "out there" selection. That's the good news.
The bad news?
You probably won't be able to pick the damn Derby winner.
Selecting horses for the Derby is a completely different process than handicapping an everyday, run of the mill stakes race. In those races, reasoning makes sense. Trends make sense. Past performances make sense. Throwing a horse out is easy.
The Derby? Whooo boy. This ain't no run of the mill anything.
It starts out by staring at the daunting list of 20 names. They all start to blur together as different thoughts fly through your head. The past three months have been spent watching, preparing and deciphering between these contenders and all of a sudden, they all seem the same.
So, after 10 minutes of allowing your head to rule, you realize you need to eliminate some horses. Starting at the top, you start to strike out the colts who are sons of champion sprinters and milers. Wait. Wasn't Boundary a miler? And Mr Prospector? Dammit. Erase strikeout marks. Forget breeding. How often does the son of AP Indy out of the Seattle Slew mare actually win the Derby anyways?
Who do we eliminate now? Take out the ones who don't seem to have the class. This colt broke his maiden at Po Dunk Downs and finished 4th in the Sunland Der..... Mine. That. Bird. You toy with the question that has hung over every handicapper's head since 2009: Can we forget about this Derby yet? The ghost of a hobbling cowboy trainer and a tiny bay colt haunt you and make it impossible to draw a line through the Sunland superstar.
Speed figures. Speed figures were created for races like this. Give a numerical value to a performance. Bada Bing. Too bad all the speed figures are within two points of each other for the previous start.
How about how the race will set up? There seems to be about 7 speed horses lining up to take the lead. So that should favor that dead closer, right? But what about the trip? Horses never get stopped in the Derby....
So there you sit. No horse eliminated, no horse picked. The blur only seems to spread now.
How exactly do you pick that elusive Derby winner? Let alone an exacta or trifecta wager... God save us all if the superfecta seems lucrative.
That's really the beauty of it. It isn't run of the mill in any way. It's a stakes race, technically, but really, it is in a class of its own. It's 20 three year olds, a fact that should automatically spell disaster. All of them are going 10 furlongs for the first time. All of them have been prepped for this race and this race only. It will not serve as a tightener for a future race. This is it. It brings in sprinters with connections who would have never dreamed of entering them in a 9 furlong race, let alone 10. It brings in turf horses with pedigrees that are littered with Danehill, Sadlers Wells. It brings in colts with only two or three starts under their belts.
The conditions are technically a grade one going 1 1/4 mile on the dirt. These conditions would normally be avoided by half of the field.
But it is the Derby after all.
So how do you handicap?
Go off a hunch. Stay on the bandwagon you've been on all spring. Bet the overlay. Pick the traditionally winning connections. Pick your favorite name. Throw a proverbial dart. The good news about handicapping the Derby?
No one will call you an idiot leading up to the race. The images of Giacomo and Mine That Bird are fresh enough to never mock someone for an "out there" selection. That's the good news.
The bad news?
You probably won't be able to pick the damn Derby winner.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)