I have tried to make an attempt at separating the contenders into my top horses I like to win, the ones I like to finish top 3, and my throw outs. Enjoy.
To Win (In no particular order):
Archarcharch: He's consistent, has a great classic pedigree (what did I say about that??? Sigh....) and the race should set up nicely for him. The post is a concern, but I refuse to let that affect my picks.
Mucho Macho Man: He's the one I'm willing to excuse for his last race. The lost shoe may have really contributed to his loss.
Dialed In: He hasn't done anything wrong. In other years, I would dismiss him for being slow, but they are all as slow. The race should set up very well for him, but I am afraid of the trip he may have to overcome as a dead closer.
To Win or To Place? (I can't decide whether I like these horses enough to declare them potential winners):
Shackleford: I have said all week that if you like Dialed In at all, you have to like Shackleford. He ran a much tougher race in Florida and was tough as nails. His pedigree and running style will work against him, but I think there is more to him than a lot of the other sprinter speed types.
Soldat: I've been high on this horse all spring and I hate to give up now. Obviously, he suffers from the same problem as Shackleford in that he is speed that will have to hang tough to be part of the scene at the wire, but I think he's a classy, tough colt who can do it.
Top 3 Type Horses:
Nehro: It's hard to ignore his closing runs in his last two, but I have trouble betting a horse who is 1 for 5 lifetime.
Midnight Interlude: What in the world to do with this horse.... I consider him the wild card. He's obviously still developing, but he's a big burly colt. I feel like he will flop and be overwhelmed by everything Derby, but he could be a very talented horse. Impossible for me to ignore.
Santiva: He had an odd spring with a bit of a break coming into the Risen Star, making you think he wasn't quite primed for it. But then he ran in the Blue Grass? Totally a throw out performance. He has a win over Churchill, which is definitely a plus. I struggle to like him to win due to the odd gaps between races and only two starts this year, but I can see him getting some of it.
Animal Kingdom: I got talked onto this horse. Dead serious. I still want to place him in my "synthetic/turf horse" file, but his work was beautiful last weekend. Begrudgingly adding him here....
Throw out horses (In order of preference):
Derby Kitten: I almost want to put this horse in my "could place" list, but I have no clue why. He should be in the same category of Brilliant Speed and Twinspired, but for some unknown reason, I'm willing to give him a bit more credit. Call it a hunch.
Master of Hounds: Could he run well? I suppose. He's shown he has talent and I think his pedigree could maybe indicate some dirt affinity. But there's just too much to indicate otherwise.
Twice The Appeal: Don't throw out Borel right? Well, if this colt wins, there will be about as many crickets as there were after Mine That Bird won. Not willing to give Sunland horses credit off of just one success over the past 100 years.
Uncle Mo: Where do I start? I hated his Wood Memorial. It wasn't so much his run, it was the complete lack of heart he showed. That was a horse that didn't care a lick that he was getting passed. Combine that with all the crap in the past few weeks with GI tract infections, quarters being grabbed, workouts being lackluster, Repole being defensive, Repole seeming defeated, the panel of vets, the climbing action in gallops, the missed meals. Need I go on? Don't even think he will run.
Pants On Fire: .....I still don't know what happened in the LA Derby. It was his first flash of brilliance. Looking back, I still wouldn't bet him in that race, so why would I now?
Stay Thirsty: Too inconsistent and I am concerned his post will actually be the worst one due to all the speed on the outside of him vying for a rail position. Could see him getting pinched.
Decisive Moment: Last won at Delta Downs. I think that's a good indication of class.
Comma To The Top: This horse bugs me. I loved that his connections ruled out the Derby prior to the SA Derby. And then they do what everyone does. He was gassed going 9F. Can't see him being anywhere near the top at the end.
Brilliant Speed: I don't like Keeneland horses coming into the Derby and I just don't think he's a dirt horse.
Twinspired: The Derby gods want him to win, right? Nah. Like Brilliant Speed, he has been put on synthetics or turf his entire career. There's usually a reason for that.
Watch Me Go: I just don't think he has the class for this one.
So there it is, the field, one by one. Judging by my recent lack of scores, you may want to just flip flop this list.
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